- The short (what to expect Friday)
- Release logistics (MoSPI)
- Nowcast dashboard: signals to wire
- Tariff shock channels (what to watch next)
- FAQ
The short
- Consensus: A Reuters poll points to ~6.7% YoY for Apr–Jun (Q1 FY26), slower than Q4 FY25’s 7.4%.
- Drivers: Government capex & services stay supportive; private capex & industry are the swing factors.
- Risks: Trade/tariff spillovers and transmission lags on financing costs could shade prints lower into H2.
Release logistics (MoSPI)
MoSPI’s Advance Release Calendar pegs the Q1 FY26 GDP at Friday, Aug 29 (evening release). Build your notes with GVA splits and revisions scenarios ready.
Pro tip: Keep a “revisions heatmap” handy—services & manufacturing often see the largest back-fills once ASI/IIP vintages land.
Nowcast dashboard — actionable
Services demand
- Composite PMI components (new orders, prices)
- E-way bills & FASTag throughput (proxy mobility)
- Air travel & hotel ADR/occ (urban discretionary)
Capex & construction
- Steel & cement dispatches (YoY, seasonally aware)
- Union & state capex utilisation (QTD)
- Power demand (industrial share) & rail freight
Industry & trade
- IIP core (refinery, steel, electricity)
- Non-oil non-gold exports & import content
- Container/port moves (JNPT, Mundra)
Household pulse
- Two-wheeler & entry-car registrations
- Rural FMCG off-take, fertiliser sales
- Credit growth (retail vs MSME), delinquency
Tariff shock channels — what to watch next
- Volume risk: Apparel, gems/jewellery, furniture, shrimp face first-order U.S. demand cuts.
- Margin risk: INR passes only part of shock; renegotiate to ex-tariff pricing; protect working capital.
- Substitution: EU/Japan/Middle East lanes; watch Vietnamese/ASEAN share gains.
Desk setup Keep a quick-reaction deck for Friday: headline GDP, GVA by sector, revisions, and tariff-sensitive sub-indices.
FAQ
- Will the print beat 7%? Possible, but base effects and industry softness lean the other way—watch services/GVA.
- How big a tariff hit shows up in Q1? Limited—most impact is Q2 onward; still, expect guidance changes from exporters.