- The short — 60-second brief
- Tariffs & trade — where policy heat is
- Tech & infra — AI phones, GPU pools, data centres
- Tax & macro — collections, fuel, FX
- Operator playbooks — retail, OEMs, exporters
The short
- Tariffs: Import-duty chatter resurfaced in consumer electronics components and certain intermediates; no broad-based hike yet, but corridor risk up.
- Tech: AI-centric smartphone launches and cloud credits expanded; data-centre consultations signalled faster approval plumbing and RE access.
- Tax: Monthly tax inflows held firm; states reported steady settlements, supporting infra outlays into Q3.
- Costs: Jet fuel and commercial LPG saw upward adjustments mid-week; petrol/diesel retail bands stayed steady in major metros.
Use these as directional signals; confirm your city/commodity feeds before pricing decisions.
Tariffs & trade — who’s exposed
Consumer electronics
- Local value-addition remains the policy nudge; SKD/CKD bill of materials most sensitive.
- OEMs: pre-book critical components with currency buffers; widen vendor base for displays and camera modules.
Industrial intermediates
- Chemicals/metals intermediates face episodic safeguard reviews.
- Exporters: lock logistics slots; monitor anti-dumping review calendars.
Tech & infra — signals to track
- AI smartphones: On-device models with offline features expand; retail sets up festival offers around “agent” demos.
- GPU & cloud credits: Priority queues for research/startups expanded; founders should pre-qualify documentation early.
- Data centres: Draft policy direction points to single-window approvals and RE open-access—Tier-2/3 sites in focus.
Tax & macro — what changed
- Tax collections: Month’s gross intake remained robust; cash-flow at the Centre/States supportive of capex execution.
- Fuel: ATF/commercial LPG nudged up; household retail bands unchanged in most metros.
- FX: INR was broadly range-bound vs USD; importers hedged near known payables.
Operator playbook — retailers
- Bundle AI-phone promos with carrier/UPI offers; staff quick “agent” demos at stores.
- Price-lock events for big-ticket items through the festive window.
Operator playbook — OEMs/exporters
- Tariff buffer: hold 2–3 weeks of critical imported sub-assemblies; diversify ports.
- FX: ladder hedges by payable due dates; avoid oversized single-maturity positions.