- CPI & WPI due — food vs core watch
- Rupee, crude, and FII/DII trendlines
- IPO action + SEBI regulatory shifts
- Macro signals for RBI’s upcoming MPC
- Playbook & watchlist for next week
The short
- Inflation: Food elevated; core sticky — limits near-term easing odds.
- FX & oil: INR ~₹83 provides cushion; Brent in high-70s keeps OMCs comfy.
- Flows: FPI net positive; domestic SIPs consistent backstop.
- IPO tape: Primary pipeline busy; post-listing dispersion is high.
- Rules: SEBI fast-track timelines, InvIT chatter; compliance watch for fintechs.
Dashboard
| Indicator | Current (indicative) | w/w | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,950 | +1.2% | Financials leadership; defensives lag |
| USD/INR | 83.05 | +0.1% | Range-bound; RBI smoothing suspected |
| Brent | $79.2 | -0.6% | Refining margins stable; retail price buffer |
| FII Net | +₹4,200 cr | — | 3rd positive week; banks/auto favored |
Build Stick a sparkline for Nifty/BankNifty, USD/INR, Brent. One glance, three trends.
MPC scenario tree
- Base (60–70%) — Hold stance/rates; hawkish language on food/core; liquidity fine-tuning.
- Dovish tilt (15–25%) — Softer core + benign oil; guidance shifts to “calibrated.”
- Hawkish risk (10–15%) — Food spike + FX wobble; stronger inflation vigilance.
What flips the base case? A material downside surprise in core CPI, or sustained INR appreciation alongside sub-$75 Brent.
Sector takeaways
Banks & Financials
Credit growth steady; NIMs stable. PSU banks extend momentum on asset quality & capex cycle hopes.
Autos
PV strong; 2W mixed. Watch festive inventory and EV policy updates for pricing actions.
IT & Tech
Order ramp uneven. Domestic IPOs in tech-services drawing selective bids; margins in focus.
Energy/OMCs
Brent under $80 + stable INR → favorable marketing margins; monitor GRMs and inventory gains.
Breadth & leadership (what to chart)
- Advance/Decline lines vs Nifty → divergence = caution.
- 52-week highs breadth → trend health proxy.
- Smallcap/Nifty ratio → risk appetite gauge (watch for overheating).
Playbook (trader & PM notes)
Trader
- Fade gap-ups into CPI print; re-risk if core undershoots.
- Pairs: PSU bank long vs private bank hedge on event days.
PM
- Add on dips to domestic cyclicals with earnings visibility.
- Stagger adds in quality midcaps; avoid low-float euphoria.
Next-week calendar (indicative)
- Inflation prints (CPI/WPI) window → food vs core split.
- Primary market: 3–6 SME listings; one mid-cap possible.
- Global: US data + oil inventories; watch DXY if it spikes.
Heads-up If DXY jumps + INR softens, watch OMCs and rate-sensitive pockets for quick rotations.
FAQ
- Will RBI cut if CPI cools? One print won’t do it. A trend + core cooling is needed.
- Why are IPOs hot if rates are high? Local liquidity (SIPs) + risk appetite in select sectors.