The short
- Rates: RBI MPC wraps on Oct 1 (Wed); watch stance, liquidity guidance, and any macroprudential nudges.
- Activity: India Manufacturing PMI prints on Oct 1 (first working day standard).
- Oil: OPEC+ meets Oct 5 (Sun); output messaging could sway Brent and OMC margins.
- Global cue: US payrolls land Oct 3 (Fri, 8:30 ET) — USD, yields, IT exporters sensitive.
Calendar — India focus (IST)
| Date | Event | Our watch-points |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29–Oct 1 | RBI MPC (decision Oct 1) | Stance language, liquidity ops, sectoral risk flags |
| Oct 1 (Wed) | India Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | New orders vs output; price indices for input/output |
| Oct 1 (Wed) | Monthly resets: LPG, ATF (administered/market-linked) | Airlines/OMCs sensitivity; logistics pass-through |
| Oct 3 (Fri) | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) | USD/UST move → IT exporters, FPI risk appetite |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | OPEC+ meeting | Quota path vs realized output; Brent–INR matrix |
Banks & financials
- Prefer lenders with steady CASA and lower wholesale mix into policy day.
- Watch commentary on liquidity, HTM/AFS treatment, and deposit beta.
Capital goods & industrials
- Stable PMI + orderbook visibility supports leadership; track input-cost lines if Brent lifts.
- Execution cadence (book-to-bill) and OCF conversion remain key.
IT services
- US payrolls → USD and rate expectations; cost-takeout vendors hold better on macro jitters.
- Keep an eye on large-deal TCV flow and onsite mix.
OMCs & airlines
- ATF/LPG monthly reset on Oct 1; OPEC+ tone on Oct 5 adds second-order risk.
- Prefer balanced marketing/refining mix; monitor GRMs and net under-recoveries.
Risk checks
- Reduce beta if breadth (A/D line, % stocks above 50-DMA) rolls over post-policy.
- Size smaller in low-float pockets into event-heavy weeks.
- Use stops around event risk rather than averaging losers.