- The short — week’s market drivers
- Calendar of key prints & events
- Policy Watch: what RBI will weigh
- Playbook for traders & PMs
- Charts
The short
- Inflation: Core glidepath > headline noise. Data cue: watch services inflation stickiness.
- FX & oil: USD/INR range + Brent sub-$80 = cushion for OMCs; sudden DXY spikes = risk-off trigger.
- Flows: SIPs steady; FPI bias to banks/infra. Track block deals for rotation hints.
- Equities: Leaders (PSU banks, cap goods) intact; breadth OK but pockets of froth in smallcaps.
Week-at-a-glance
| Day | Event | Impact | Focus | Actionable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | WPI print | Lead on manufacturing prices | Food vs fuel split | Note if fuel eases while food stays firm → mixed headline |
| Tue | Fuel/freight checks | Pass-through risk | Airfares, diesel | Flag routes with spikes for CPI sub-baskets explainer |
| Wed | Liquidity & bills | Curve shape | 3–12m cut-offs | Screen banks with lowest funding cost drift |
| Thu | FX reserves (w/w) | Buffer vs volatility | Change vs oil/DXY | Overlay reserves delta with USD/INR for chart-bite |
| Fri | MPC commentary | Tone preview | “Durable disinflation” phrase | Headline-to-core explainer + policy watchlist |
Policy Watch: what RBI will weigh
- Quality of disinflation: Core easing + stable wage growth = room to soften tone; food swings remain transitory unless second-round effects show up.
- External matrix: If DXY > recent range or Brent > $82 for multiple sessions, expect tighter liquidity even with repo on hold.
- Transmission & credit: Deposit repricing pace vs loan yields; rising deposit beta = pressure on NIMs → policy language stays cautious.
Playbook
Trader
- Into prints: fade extremes; re-risk only on clean core downside surprise.
- Pairs: Long PSU bank vs private bank on event days to dampen beta.
- OMCs tactical longs if Brent < $80 and INR firm; tighten stops if DXY pops.
PM
- Add on dips to domestic cyclicals with cash-flow visibility; avoid illiquid smallcap froth.
- Balance with defensives into MPC; re-rotate on language upgrade (“further progress”).
- Prefer names with positive OCF/EBITDA and stable leverage <= 2×.
Charts
- CPI vs core vs Brent (12m): Visually separates noise from policy signal.
- USD/INR with weekly reserve change: Proxy for RBI’s buffer into events.
- Nifty breadth: % above 50-DMA/200-DMA; couple with A/D line for early fatigue.