In this piece:
- The short — what matters for valuation
- Revenue model & take-rate realities
- Cohort economics — LTV/CAC & payback
- CM2 bridge: from order to contribution
- Sensitivity table (illustrative)
- Supply-side quality & compliance
- Anchor & retail checklists
- FAQ
The short
- Underwrite cohorts, not GMV: Value accrues where repeat usage and cross-sell drive stable CM2.
- Take-rate ≠ margin: Incentives, guarantees, and compliance costs matter; CM2 is the true signal.
- Durability test: City-vintage cohorts with 12–18 month retention and expanding basket size win roadshows.
- Float matters: Anchor quality + float design will decide listing stability more than oversub headlines.
Revenue model — take-rate realities
- Marketplace fee + platform/service charges = reported take-rate.
- Netting for promos, refunds, partner incentives yields an effective take-rate — use this for unit-economics math.
- Category mix skews the average: routine home services vs high-ticket installs have different elasticity and churn patterns.
Cohort economics — LTV/CAC & payback
What to request
- LTV/CAC by city vintage (M1, M3, M6, M12) with net incentives.
- Repeat rate and average orders/user by quarter of cohort age.
- Contribution margin (CM2) ladder by category and city tier.
Durability tests
- Does payback stay ≤9 months as cohorts scale?
- Does cross-sell expand basket without rising refunds/guarantee claims?
- Are mature cohorts CM2-positive after all platform credits?
CM2 bridge — from order to contribution
| Step | Item | Illustrative | Notes |
|---|
| 1 | Gross order value | ₹1,000 | Ticket varies by category |
| 2 | Effective take-rate | 15% | After incentives/promos |
| 3 | Net platform revenue | ₹150 | Step 1 × Step 2 |
| 4 | Direct costs | ₹55 | Support, payments, quality ops |
| 5 | CM2 | ₹95 | Step 3 − Step 4 |
Goal: CM2 stays positive after refunds/guarantee costs and scales with cohort age and cross-sell depth.
Sensitivity table (illustrative)
| Effective take-rate | Direct cost / order | Tickets / year | CM2 / user / year | Payback (months) |
|---|
| 14% | ₹60 | 4 | ₹200 | 11–12 |
| 15% | ₹55 | 5 | ₹325 | 8–9 |
| 16% | ₹50 | 5 | ₹400 | 7–8 |
Read Anchors will pressure-test if CM2 resilience holds when promos normalize and claims cycle rises with scale.
Supply-side quality & compliance
- Partner selection, background checks, and training cadence — correlate to refunds and NPS.
- Safety/compliance stack (ID, insurance, grievance redressal) — reduces headline risk and improves anchor comfort.
- City-tier expansion: watch how CM2 and incident rates move outside top metros.
Anchor & retail checklists
Anchor questions
- What’s the effective take-rate trend by category after incentives?
- Is CM2 positive by M6 for top 10 city-vintages?
- What’s the refund/guarantee cost curve as cohorts mature?
- How does marketing efficiency behave post-listing (CAC discipline)?
Retail checklist
- Beware of GMV optics without CM2 proof.
- Prefer short receivable cycles and positive OCF/EBITDA trajectory.
- Size bids by free float and likely allotment, not oversub multiples.
FAQ
- Is a higher take-rate always better? Not if promos and guarantees offset it — CM2 decides.
- What’s a healthy payback? Sub-9 months on steady cohorts with stable incident rates.