- The short — what actually matters
- KPI map & clean definitions
- Cohorts & payback (with sensitivity)
- Density & routing economics (zone archetypes)
- Partner earnings, take rate & incentive taper
- Category mix & cross-subsidy questions
- Cancellations, refunds & trust costs
- Offline substitutes & moat tests
- Playbooks (investors, founders, bankers)
The short
- Cohort durability > blended growth: Value rests on 12–24m repeat curves by category/city.
- Payback in months: CAC should return in ≤ 9m (Tier-1 dense), ≤ 12m (Tier-2).
- Density compounding: More jobs/zone/day ↓ CAC, ↓ cancels, ↑ NPS, ↑ CM2%.
- Partner viability: Post-incentive earnings must clear a living-wage floor to avoid churn-CAC spirals.
KPI map & definitions
| Metric | Definition (clean) | Inspect |
|---|---|---|
| GMV | Pre-commission order value | Mix shifts; promo inflation |
| Take rate | (Platform revenue – discounts – subsidies) ÷ GMV | Net vs gross disclosure |
| CM2% | Platform revenue – (incentives + CS + payments + refunds) | Promo normalization |
| CAC (true) | Paid media + referral credits + first-order subsidy ÷ new paid users | Attribution window |
| LTV (cohort) | Σ CM2_user_t ÷ (1+r)^t for t=1..24m | Decay assumptions by category |
| Payback | CAC ÷ monthly CM2 per retained user | Zone density effect |
Cohorts & payback — with sensitivity
Illustrative payback matrix (Beauty, dense Tier-1)
| CM2% ▼ / AOV ▲ | ₹900 | ₹1,100 | ₹1,300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 12m | 10m | 9m |
| 22% | 10m | 8m | 7m |
| 26% | 8m | 7m | 6m |
Assume CAC ₹700–₹900; retention Month-12 ~30–35%.
Stress tests
- AOV −10% with constant CAC → payback slips ~1–2m.
- Payout +3% (partner uplift) → CM2 compresses ~150–250bps unless AOV lifts.
- Cancel rate +200bps → refunds & re-slot costs rise; CM2 hit magnified in low-density zones.
Density & routing economics
Service density (jobs/zone/day) reduces travel dead-time and increases slot fill, directly improving CM2% and retention.
| Zone archetype | Jobs/day | Est. CAC | CM2% | Cancel risk | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier-1 Core | 12–18 | Low | High | Low | Best unit economics; anchor for cohorts |
| Tier-1 Fringe | 7–10 | Mid | Mid | Mid | Needs routing + surge discipline |
| Tier-2/3 Mixed | 3–6 | High | Lower | Higher | Partner availability & trust dominate |
Partner earnings, take rate & incentive taper
- Stability test: Post-incentive take-home ≥ category median within city; otherwise churn raises CAC.
- Elasticity: If partner payout ↑ 3–4%, model AOV lift from better talent retention & NPS.
- Safety costs: Background checks, training, consumables → book these in CM2 for apples-to-apples.
Category mix & cross-subsidy questions
| Category | AOV | CM2% | Repeat | Role in mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauty & Wellness | Mid–High | High | Monthly/Bi-monthly | Profit anchor in dense zones |
| Cleaning/Deep Clean | High | Mid | Quarterly | Seasonal spikes; staffing heavy |
| Repairs/Handyman | Low–Mid | Lower | Event-driven | Trust-led; availability moat |
Cancellations, refunds & trust costs
- Late cancel matrix: Time-of-day × category; evening beauty & weekend cleaning are high risk.
- Refund policy clarity: Where do refunds sit—gross, net, or below the line? Normalize for CM2.
- Trust spend: Safety gear, insurance, and dispute ops reduce churn & chargebacks; capture benefit in retention curves.
Offline substitutes & moat tests
Substitutes
- Local salons/home parlours (Beauty)
- Housing society vendors (Cleaning)
- Local technicians (Repairs)
Moat tests
- Availability advantage: median wait time vs offline
- Trust: incident rate & resolution SLA vs peers
- Price dispersion vs NPS: can premiums sustain?
Playbooks
Investors
- Model category-level LTV/CAC; avoid blended optics.
- Demand net take-rate & CM2 reconciliation to audited notes.
- Run −10% AOV & +3% payout shocks; require payback ≤ 12m.
Founders
- Publish a locked KPI glossary; align DRHP, MD&A, decks.
- Show density maps, cancel fixes, safety spend ROI.
- Disclose post-incentive partner earnings distributions.
Bankers
- Educate anchors on cohort math & payback ladders.
- Ensure float sizing suits retail volatility.
- Avoid metric drift; one definition everywhere.