- The short (what flipped on Day-2/3)
- Buyer vs seller: who cut, who deferred
- HS-code heatmap
- Re-routing chatter (alt lanes/assembly)
- Rupee/curve: RBI watchlist
- Deal-desk checklist
- FAQ
The short
- Negotiation stance: U.S. buyers asked for ex-tariff quotes or discounts; Indian sellers sought shared burden or volume guarantees.
- Early capitulation: Low-margin apparel/footwear lines blinked first; gems/jewellery used inventory buffers; shrimp shifted to staggered deliveries.
- FX cushion: INR softness offsets part of the shock—but thin-margin exporters still face squeeze.
Buyer vs seller — who cut, who deferred
Buyer-favoured (price cuts)
- Fast-fashion basics; generic footwear SKUs
- Flat discounts or ex-tariff quotes; tighter payment terms
Seller-favoured (hold/deferrals)
- High-ticket jewellery; bespoke furniture
- Shorter runs; deposits; bonded-warehouse routing
Protect differentiated SKUs; triage commodity lines; move to make-to-order where feasible.
HS-code heatmap (first-order)
| Bucket | HS codes | Day-2/3 desk reality | Spreading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apparel/Textiles | 61/62/63 | 5–10% discount asks on basics; premium lines resist | Shift mix to EU/Japan; FOB renegotiations |
| Gems & Jewellery | 71 | Selective deferrals; inventory run-down | Bonded-warehouse routing; event-led drops |
| Footwear | 64 | Retail inventory overhang hazard | Shorter cycles; smaller batches |
| Furniture | 94 | Housing-linked slowdown; customs complexity | 3PL duty-drawback; SKU rationalisation |
| Seafood (Shrimp) | 03 (0306) | Staggered shipments; cold-chain cost spike | Diversify to Japan/EU; insure perishables |
Re-routing chatter — what’s being tested
- Near-shore assembly: Evaluate last-mile value-add in Mexico/Caribbean to alter tariff treatment.
- Alt lanes: Shift volumes to EU/Japan/Middle East; test retailer private-label partnerships.
- Contract language: Standardise ex-tariff clauses; auto re-price on policy change.
Rupee/curve — RBI watchlist
Monitor LAF/VRR/VRRR usage and OMO/Twist hints. Stable G-sec belly suggests smoothing; sharp INR gaps raise odds of operations.
Deal-desk checklist
Pricing & contracts
- Move to ex-tariff quotes; shorten tenors
- Add FX pass-through triggers; revisit INCOTERMS
Ops & risk
- SKU-level HS-code audit; certificate readiness
- Layered FX hedges; receivables surveillance for MSMEs
FAQ
- Will currency moves offset tariffs? Partially at best; not enough to fully erase a 25pp jump.
- Who feels it first? Buyer-driven, low-margin categories (fast-fashion basics, generic footwear).
- Best immediate hedge? Shorter tenors, SKU mix shift, and layered hedges.