- The short — 60-second brief
- Macro & market map
- Sector triggers & setups
- Positioning tilts & risk bands
- Ops checklists you can ship
The short
- Rates: Policy pause is in; watch money-market liquidity prints and deposit pricing chatter.
- Prices: Brent hovered mid-$60s last week; retail petrol/diesel bands steady; ATF/commercial LPG recently reset.
- FX: INR stayed range-bound; importers hedge near payables, exporters ladder receivables.
- Flows: Domestic SIPs remain the ballast; FPI appetite selective in financials/industrials.
Macro & market map
| Theme | Watch | Why it matters | Actionable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity | Short-tenor rates, call/CBLO spreads | Signals funding cost for NBFCs | Favor lenders with low wholesale mix |
| Energy | Brent trend, OMC pricing windows | Drives OMC marketing margins | Blend refining and marketing exposure |
| Exports | USD/INR bands, freight indices | Order profitability, realization | Hedge ladders tied to shipments |
| Breadth | % stocks above 50-DMA; A/D line | Risk appetite & rotations | Fade froth in illiquid microcaps |
Sector triggers & setups
Banks/Financials
- Deposit repricing vs CASA stability; retail credit momentum into festival season.
- Setup: Prefer lenders with OCF/EBITDA > 0.8 and low wholesale funding.
Capital Goods/Industrials
- Orderbook conversion cadence; input spreads.
- Setup: Diversified orderbooks with visibility > 1.5× revenue.
Autos
- Festive dispatches, dealer inventory weeks, discount intensity.
- Setup: Trim if inventory > 6 weeks; track mix shift to higher-margin variants.
FMCG
- Input cost pass-through vs elasticity; rural recovery signs.
- Setup: Favor staples with gross-margin buffers and D2C pilots.
IT Services
- Large-deal TCV visibility; onsite mix and wage resets.
- Setup: Stick to cost-takeout leaders; avoid premium without TCV proof.
Energy/OMCs
- Marketing margin bands, GRMs, and timing of retail moves.
- Setup: Balanced refining/marketing names; avoid chasing post-headline spikes.
Positioning tilts & risk bands
Tilt Overweight: Banks, Capital Goods. Neutral: Autos, Power, FMCG. Underweight: frothy discretionary mid/smallcaps, high-beta microcaps with weak OCF.
- Cut exposure if a leader underperforms the Nifty by 5–7% over 4 weeks or net earnings revisions turn negative.
- Size positions by float and daily turnover; avoid crowded, event-driven illiquidity.
Ops checklists you can ship
Procurement
- Stagger buys in commodities with rising vol; use 30/60/90 ladders.
- Insert fuel/freight pass-through clauses in vendor contracts.
Treasury
- Map FX hedges to shipment/payment dates; avoid single-maturity bulges.
- Keep liquidity buffers for quarter-end working capital spikes.