- The short — pre-open five-liner
- First 90 minutes: rules & triggers
- Rotation map & earnings tells
- Breadth & risk markers
- Position sizing & do-nots
The short
- Leaders: Banks, capital goods — orderbooks + asset quality keep RS intact.
- Improving: Autos, pharma, power — breadth expands on festive builds and stable mix.
- Cooling: IT midcaps — prefer cost-takeout/automation narratives with TCV proof.
- Flows: Domestic savings continue to stabilize dips; size carefully in low-float names.
- Macro: FX rangebound; retail fuel bands steady — benign for near-term sentiment (directional).
First 90 minutes — execution rules
Open → +30 min
- If leader sectors gap up <0.6% with rising breadth, add on first higher-low; stop below VWAP −0.5%.
- If gap >1.2%, wait for 5-min closing above VWAP twice before entry.
+30 → +60 min
- Fade failed breakouts on IT midcaps if RS vs Nifty falls 50 bps and supply rises; keep risk ≤0.4R.
- Autos: monitor dealer inventory chatter; avoid names with discount escalation.
+60 → +90 min
- Trim microcaps if A/D line rolls while leaders flat — signal of intraday de-risking.
- Hold back fresh risk ahead of mid-day earnings calls; add post-color if guideposts clear.
Rotation map (illustrative)
| Sector | Status | Driver | Risk flag | Positioning cue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | Leader | Credit growth, asset quality | Deposit beta creep | Favor lenders with OCF/EBITDA > 0.8 |
| Capital Goods | Leader | Backlogs, execution | Input costs | Diversified orderbooks, service mix |
| Autos | Improving | Festive builds | Inventory > 6 weeks | Trim on sustained discounting |
| Pharma | Improving | US launches + India | US price erosion | Prefer steady GM + ANDA pipeline |
| IT | Cooling | Delayed ramps | US macro scare | Stick to TCO/automation leaders |
| Power | Improving | Demand + tariffs | Fuel linkages | Blend regulated + merchant |
Breadth & risk markers
- Advance/Decline > 1.4× with leaders green → add; < 0.9× → reduce beta.
- Smallcap/Nifty ratio near prior swing high → avoid adding illiquid exposure.
- Watch earnings-linked names for guidance quality, not just beats/misses.
Position sizing & do-nots
- Cap single-name risk at ≤2.0R intraday; avoid financed punts into event hours.
- No chasing low-float spikes without float/anchor clarity.
- Log exits on rule breach: 2 failed signals → stand down for the session.