- The short — breadth and beta
- What changed this fortnight
- Liquidity & float map
- SME listings: day-2 reality
- Position sizing & exits
The short
- Breadth: After a 7-session skid, mid/smallcaps bounced but remain fragile versus large caps.
- Revisions: IT and select healthcare names saw negative drift; PSU banks provided ballast.
- Liquidity: SME post-listing volumes are thinning; many recent listings trade at or below issue.
What changed this fortnight
- Flows & vol: Foreign selling pressure stayed elevated; VIX blips coincided with IT/Pharma weakness.
- Leaders vs laggards: PSU banks and energy steadied the tape; IT midcaps led declines.
- Index rejig lens: Inclusion/exclusion flows can distort near-term moves—size cautiously around cut-over dates.
Liquidity & float map
| Bucket | Float reality | Risk cue | Actionable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midcap quality | Healthy institutional mix | Earnings miss → swift derating | Stagger entries; use results-day spreads |
| Smallcap momentum | Retail-heavy; dealer risk | Gap-downs on de-risking days | Layer exits; avoid averaging losers |
| SME recent lists | Very low float | Day-2 volume cliff | Trade allocations, not narratives |
SME listings: day-2 reality
High oversubscription does not guarantee sustained price action. Recent cohorts show softer debuts and higher odds of slipping below issue within weeks as rules tighten and secondary breadth weakens.
How to navigate Prioritize free float, market-maker obligations, and cash conversion over subscription multiples.
Position sizing & exits
- Cap single-name exposure based on free float × 10-day average value traded.
- Set event-day stops; widen only if liquidity buffers (ADV) justify.
- Exit on a two-strike rule: miss + negative revisions, or miss + guidance cut.