The short
- Queue depth: Large caps see healthier QIB anchors; SME line-up remains dense but post-listing liquidity is mixed.
- Calendars: A few main-board issues cluster into the fortnight; SMEs bookend the week with shorter windows.
- Valuations: Focus on unit economics and cash conversion; treat GMP as sentiment only.
- Process: Faster observations improve timing—but disclosure quality and governance screens matter more.
Pipeline snapshot (illustrative)
| Stage | What moved | What to watch | Editor note |
|---|---|---|---|
| DRHP filed | Consumer/tech + industrial names | Revenue mix, related-party deals | Check cohort LTV/CAC and contribution margins |
| Observation letter | Select infra/financials | Anchor education timeline | Float, lock-ins, and anchor type (growth vs yield) |
| RHP & price band | Mid-week announcements | Band vs peers (P/S, EV/EBITDA) | Update comps and revision sensitivity |
| Delays/holds | SME clusters spill over | Market-maker obligations | Watch free-float and day-2 liquidity |
Subscription pattern tells
QIB
- Quality anchors → better day-2 stability.
- Sector rotation influences bid strength (banks/infra supportive).
HNI
- Financing cost vs GMP drives late bids; watch leverage availability.
- Allocation math compresses net returns in crowded books.
Retail
- High oversub ≠ guaranteed pop; float and anchors matter more.
- Prefer predictable unit economics over story-led narratives.
Valuation & comps — quick table
| Bucket | Metric to anchor | Peer read-across | Risk flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer/internet | P/S + take-rate path | Marketplace/platform comps | Subsidy dilution of unit economics |
| Industrials/cap goods | EV/EBITDA + orderbook/OCF | Diversified EPC/engineering peers | Execution cadence, input costs |
| Financials | RoA/RoE + GNPA/NNPA | Lenders/fin services comps | Deposit beta, wholesale reliance |
| SME | Cash conversion + working capital | Category-specific | Low float, day-2 volumes |
Checklist for applicants
Before you apply
- Read DRHP: revenue mix, cohort metrics, related-party transactions.
- Cross-check cash flow from operations vs EBITDA (quality of earnings).
- Check float, anchor lock-ins, and promoter pledges.
Sizing & risk
- Size by liquidity and event risk; avoid leverage if allocation odds are thin.
- Set exit rules: time/price or thesis breach; respect them post-listing.
Next two weeks — planner
- Main-board: band announcements typically mid-week; anchor lists a day prior to open.
- SME: expect 6–10 issues; verify exchange notices for cut-offs and market-maker obligations.
- All: set alerts for basis-of-allotment PDFs and listing dates; track free float.