- Release timings & what will move the headline
- Watchlist: Food, Fuel/Transport, Core, Housing
- Base-effect cheats (how YoY can mislead)
- Quick scenarios (CPI/WPI ranges → market/policy read)
- Desk checklist + takeaways for households/investors
Release timings
| Series | Reference month | Release date | Publisher |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | Aug ’25 | Fri · Sep 12 | NSO / MoSPI |
| WPI | Aug ’25 | Mon · Sep 15 | DPIIT / OEA |
Heads-up Data drop typically lands after market hours. Prep your copy with placeholders so you can publish in minutes.
The short
- Food base turns friendlier for YoY optics, but pulses/cereals stickiness can spoil the headline if MoM is firm.
- Fuel soft on YoY unless there’s a fresh crude bounce; ATF/LPG tweaks feed through with lags.
- Core still tame on goods discounting; services pockets (education/health) can add a few bps.
Release watchlist (what to scan first)
Food (CFPI)
- Vegetables/TOP Check if tomato/onion base flips favourable; gauge arrivals vs damage share.
- Pulses & cereals Persistence from supply tightness; any broad-based MoM rise will keep headline sticky.
- Milk/Protein Feed costs vs administered price adjustments; region-wise divergence.
Fuel & transport
- Domestic LPG/ATF changes and any pump price moves for WPI fuel.
- Freight/airfare seasonality (festive build-up) in CPI transport.
Core (ex-food & fuel)
- Goods: appliances/CP durables discounting intensity.
- Services: fees for education, health, recreation—small but steady.
Housing
- HRA resets in urban centres; state-specific swings can nudge headline.
Base-effect cheats (why YoY can mislead)
| Component | Last year reference | Implication for Aug ’25 YoY | What to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vegetables (TOP) | High prints on weather shocks | Favourable base can pull YoY down even if MoM is steady | APMC arrivals, grade mix, regional spikes |
| Fuel | Crude lower YoY into mid-’25 | Soft YoY unless new crude rally | Brent path, domestic pass-throughs |
| Manufactured (WPI) | Muted factory-gate pricing | WPI core stays mild | Input costs, PMIs, discounting |
Quick scenarios
CPI (YoY, Aug ’25)
| Read | Implication | |
|---|---|---|
| < 4.0% | Cooler than feared | Duration bid; equities like rate-sensitive pockets |
| 4.0–4.5% | Baseline | “Hold + data-watch” messaging from policy |
| > 4.5% | Sticky | Pushes out cut path; rupee/PSU bank watch |
WPI (YoY, Aug ’25)
| Read | Implication | |
|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0.0% | Factory-gate disinflation | Margin relief for manufacturers |
| 0.0–0.5% | Muted | Neutral for policy narrative |
| > 0.5% | Firming | Watch input-cost passthrough to CPI core |
Desk checklist (5 mins on data day)
- Update the two scenario tables above with the actual prints.
- Write a three-bullet “The short” box (Food / Core / Fuel) using fresh numbers.
- Add one regional callout if city/state prints diverge meaningfully.
- Note policy angle in one line (cut path vs real rates).
- Publish + push alert; earmark for Weekend Wrap if notable.
Household & investor takeaways
Households
- Food budgeting Stagger purchases; switch to stable-priced substitutes during spikes.
- EMI sensitivity A softer CPI path keeps rate-cut hopes alive; ladder FDs if prints stay sticky.
Investors
- Rates Sub-4% CPI supports duration; >4.5% argues for caution.
- Sectors Consumer staples benefit from easing food; industrials watch WPI/core trends.