- The short — 6 signals
- Category check: where demand is building
- Discount ladders & margin math
- Offline vs online: logistics & returns
- Playbooks (brands, retailers, investors)
The short
- Premium holds, value widens: Top-end smartphones and ACs steady; mid-value apparel needs deeper ladders.
- Channel fill: Modern trade rebuilt assortments; GT cautious on slow-movers.
- Credit & EMIs: No-cost EMI drives AOV; delinquency filters are tighter than last year.
- Returns risk: Fashion returns spike during size-led promos; bake into PDP copy and sizing tools.
- Store ops: Weekend footfalls up; conversion depends on cashier throughput and stock-outs.
- Supply: Import-sensitive SKUs (appliances, wearables) watch USD/INR; reprice windows every two weeks.
Category check
| Category | Signal | Risk | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smartphones | Flagship demand stable; 5G mid-tier competitive | Channel stuffing on older chipsets | Bundle accessories; manage buybacks |
| Consumer Durables | AC/washers steady; refrigerators price-sensitive | Freight & FX volatility | Flexible price cards; vendor-funded promos |
| Apparel/Footwear | Occasion wear rebounds | High returns; size curve misses | Fit finder; click & reserve to reduce returns |
| FMCG | Value packs & refills lead | Input cost creep | SKU rationalization; promo guardrails |
Discount ladders & margin math
Illustrative ladder
- Site-wide: 5–8%
- Category hotlist: 10–15%
- Brand-funded bursts: 12–20% (limited hours)
- Bank/UPI boosters: +5–10%
Profit guardrails
- GMROI > 2.0 in promo weeks
- Return-adjusted contribution ≥ baseline − 150 bps
- Holdback for breakage/logistics 1.2–1.8%
Offline vs online
- Stores: Add line-busters near POS; deploy mobile POS for queue-break.
- E-com: Cap COD for high-return pin codes; promise date windows conservatively.
- Last-mile: Split high-value into signature-required slots; insure fragile SKUs.
Playbooks
Brands/Retailers
- Run size-curve audits; rebalance cuts & colours by region.
- Spin up “promo-safe” PDP copy—bundle, warranty, return window.
- Automate RTV (return-to-vendor) flows for defective lots.
Investors
- Track footfall-to-conversion; not just SSSG headlines.
- Watch return-adjusted CM2 and inventory weeks.
- Prefer balance sheets with vendor financing headroom.