- The short — what moved this week
- OMC margin math (illustrative)
- City bands & household planner
- What can change prices next
- Operator tips for fleets/SMEs
The short
- Crude: Brent hovered in the mid-$60s band through the week; no sharp breakouts.
- FX: USD/INR stayed range-bound; importers laddered hedges near known payables.
- Retail: Petrol/diesel stickers were steady across top metros; ATF/commercial LPG resets from earlier this month still in effect.
- Margins: OMC marketing margins remain sensitive to a $5/bbl crude swing or a ₹1/USD move in FX.
OMC margin math (illustrative)
| Scenario | Brent ($/bbl) | USD/INR | Indicative diesel gross margin (₹/L) | Indicative petrol gross margin (₹/L) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 66 | 83.5 | ~2.0–2.5 | ~1.5–2.0 |
| Crude +$5 | 71 | 83.5 | ~1.0–1.5 | ~0.5–1.0 |
| INR +₹1/USD weaker | 66 | 84.5 | ~1.4–1.9 | ~0.9–1.4 |
| Crude −$5 & INR stable | 61 | 83.5 | ~2.8–3.3 | ~2.3–2.8 |
City bands & household planner (illustrative)
| City | Petrol (₹/L) | Diesel (₹/L) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mumbai | ~106–110 | ~93–97 | Local levies widen spread vs Delhi |
| Delhi | ~102–105 | ~90–93 | Baseline reference for many fleets |
| Bengaluru | ~102–106 | ~88–92 | Recent tax adjustments reflected |
Household planner
- For a 1,200 km/month driver at 14 km/L: petrol spend ≈ ₹8,700–9,000 at Delhi bands.
- Same run on diesel at 18 km/L: ≈ ₹6,000–6,200.
- Tip: Small route/traffic optimizations (−5% kms) save ~₹300–450/month.
EV cross-check (if relevant)
- At ₹9/kWh and 7 km/kWh: ≈ ₹1,540 for 1,200 km (ex-parking/financing).
- Use your city’s slab and charger tariff to sanity-check.
What can change prices next
- Unexpected crude supply headlines shifting Brent by ±$5–10/bbl.
- INR volatility around large FX outflows or global risk events.
- State/central tax tweaks; OMC retail policy windows around festivals.
Operator tips — fleets/SMEs
- Use fuel cards with weekly caps; reconcile mileage anomalies.
- Hedge diesel exposure via staggered vendor contracts; add buffer for long-haul corridors.
- Schedule refuels in lower-band cities when routes allow.
Operator tips — households
- Refuel mid-week mornings; avoid weekend/holiday congestion losses.
- Tyre pressure & basic service can deliver 3–5% efficiency gains.