- The short — five-line brief with actions
- Tariffs & GST — who pays, who passes through
- Tech & capex — data centres & AI hardware
- Tax/admin — consumer & SME impact
- Playbook — Owner · Doc · Due & risk triggers
The short
- Tariffs: Scrutiny on borderline HS codes rose this week; importers should lock broker pre-clearances and pass-through clauses.
- GST: Clarifications on composite items require invoice & ERP changes; run a relabel plan to avoid dual-MRP friction.
- AI/DC: Fresh DRHPs from data-centre and renewables names signal sustained infra demand; verify power/water SLAs before capex.
- Households: Fuel city-bands broadly stable m/m; staples remain the volatility driver in urban CPI baskets.
- Play: Advance-purchase critical imports; phase DC builds (shell-first); keep dual-rail eKYC in case of API churn.
Tariffs & GST — who pays, who passes through
| Item | What changed | Immediate action | P&L effect (near-term) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customs reclassification | Borderline parts under tighter view | Re-map HS codes; secure broker opinions | +50–150 bps COGS swing |
| GST on combos | Clarified rate treatment | ERP/invoice update; credit note SOP | One-off WC impact |
| Refund mechanics | Faster provisional refunds live | File SOP; daily MIS; track TAT | Liquidity release in 7–14d |
Tech & capex — data centres & AI hardware
Signals
- New DRHPs in data centres and renewables manufacturing (see IPO piece) back infra orderbooks.
- GPU availability improving in tranches; chilled-water capacity and transformer lead times are the bottlenecks.
Execution watch
- Verify power SLAs, water permissions, and grid connection timelines before locking IRR assumptions.
- Adopt phased commissioning to manage chip/cooling cycles and preserve returns.
Tax/admin — consumer & SME impact
| Lever | Household effect | SME effect | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fuel bands | Stable city bands | Freight quotes steady | Fix quarterly transport SLAs |
| eKYC/API edits | Fewer onboarding retries | Lower drop-offs with dual-rail | Keep offline fallback live |
| Refund cadence | — | Cash-flow relief | Weekly CFO dashboard |
Playbook — Owner · Doc · Due & risk triggers
| Workstream | Owner | Doc | Due | Trigger to escalate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff mapping | Indirect Tax | HS code remap pack | 5 d | Port holds / broker disputes |
| GST relabel | Sales Ops | MRP memo; stock tagging | 7 d | Dual-MRP exceptions > 5% |
| DC capex | CFO · Projects | Power/water SLA binder | 10 d | Transformer lead time > 20 wks |
| eKYC resilience | CTO | API diff + fallback SOP | 5 d | Auth failures > 1.5× baseline |