- The short — five-line brief
- Calendar: policy, auctions, data prints
- Earnings clusters (sector view)
- IPO lane: filings, bands, listings
- Commodities & FX guardrails
- Team playbooks (Ops, Finance, IR)
The short
- Earnings: Banks/capital goods lead with visibility; watch deposit beta and execution cadence.
- Primary: Select mainboard names prep bands; SME remains active—size by free float.
- Policy/data: Routine regulator updates and state notifications—treat checklists as live.
- Energy/FX: Retail fuel bands steady; INR moves track broad dollar tone more than local prints.
- Risk: Lumpy small/midcap liquidity—use ADTV-based sizing; avoid crowded events.
Calendar — policy, auctions, data (indicative for the week)
| When | Item | Watch for | What it can move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon–Tue | Key earnings (banks, engineering) | NIM path; order-to-revenue conversion | Banks, capital goods |
| Wed | Mid-week state notifications (periodic) | Fuel/VAT, local levies, mobility rules | City prices, logistics |
| Thu | FX & rates positioning | Importer hedges, month-to-date dollar demand | USD/INR, bank treasuries |
| Fri | Government securities auction | Cut-offs vs WI; demand from insurers/EPFO | Curve, rate sensitives |
Heads-up If your inputs are import-heavy, set staggered hedges—avoid single-day fixes around data prints.
Earnings clusters — signals to extract
Banks & Financials
- NIM & deposit beta; wholesale funding share movement.
- Credit cost stability; retail vs corporate mix.
- OCF/EBITDA proxy and fee-income durability.
Capital Goods/Industrials
- Order backlog, executable pipeline, margin bridge.
- Input costs; contract escalation clauses usage.
- Exports and tender conversion rates.
Autos & Components
- Festive sell-through vs dealer weeks (≤5 ideal).
- Discounting intensity and mix shifts (CNG/EV).
- RM pass-through and FX sensitivity.
IT/Pharma
- TCV build and ramp timing; onsite mix.
- US pricing pressure; remediation updates.
- Cash conversion and capital returns.
IPO lane — filings, bands, listings (illustrative)
| Stage | Mainboard | SME | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh DRHPs | 1–3 | 6–10 | Infra/logistics, healthcare, digital infra in mix |
| Observations | 1–2 | — | Prepped metric glossaries move faster |
| Price bands | 2–3 | 4–6 | Anchors prefer longer lock-ins |
| Listings | 0–2 | 4–6 | Day-2 liquidity hinges on float + MM design |
Investor tip Treat GMP as sentiment only; focus on free float, anchor quality, and cash conversion.
Commodities & FX guardrails
- Crude: Diesel cracks can swing margins even if Brent is steady—watch 2–3 week drift, not ticks.
- Metals: Reprice bids with two-column spreadsheets (old vs new FX/duty); fix escalation language.
- USD/INR: Importers: stagger hedges; exporters: define floors with rolling collars.
Team playbooks
Ops
- Lock logistics slots for peak days; define alternates for state-rule surprises.
- Vendor continuity tests—keep a “B supplier” warm for two inputs.
Finance
- Pre-validate invoice data; align GRNs and acceptance SLAs before quarter-close.
- Refresh hedging ladders and covenant dashboards.
IR
- Publish a metric glossary (unchanged across decks); reconcile to audited notes.
- Draft two “what changed” paragraphs per segment to accelerate Q&A.