- The short — price-moving levers in two weeks
- Calendar view: 14-day watchlist
- Regulator cards: SEBI · RBI · IRDAI · UIDAI · CBIC
- Compliance actions (Owner · Doc · Due)
- Risk matrix & hedges
The short
- Tariffs & GST: Even small rate edits ripple through MRP/realisation—BOM repricing in 3–7 days.
- Auctions & quotas: Calendar shifts change landed cost and inventory strategy faster than price caps.
- Market rules: Disclosure/settlement tweaks affect float/liquidity—watch free float and lock-ins.
- Data & ID rails: eKYC/API changes alter onboarding cost per customer within a week.
- Banking rails: LCR/NSFR/advisories push funding costs—cards/BNPL risk limits tighten first.
Calendar view — 14-day watchlist (illustrative)
| Date window | Lever | Likely impact | Who’s impacted | Time-to-implement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next 3–5 days | Customs/GST clarifications | MRP/margin reset in staples, durables | FMCG, retail, e-com | S (≤7 d) |
| Next 7–10 days | Duty/tariff notifications or quota tweaks | Landed cost moves; reorder thresholds | Auto, electronics, chemicals | M (2–4 w to fully cycle) |
| Within 14 days | Market/disclosure circulars | Float/liquidity; settlement cycles | Issuers, brokers, AMCs | S–M |
| Rolling | eKYC/API spec updates | Onboarding cost & funnel conversion | Banks, fintechs, insurers | S |
Read: Even if rates don’t change, clarification notes often alter treatment → price/pack adjustments.
Regulator cards
SEBI — primary & market plumbing
- Observation timelines & disclosure granularity (unit economics, RPT).
- Float/lock-in tweaks → day-2 liquidity profile.
RBI — funding & rails
- LCR/NSFR and unsecured growth guardrails; card/BNPL risk advisories.
- UPI/RTGS operational notes that move failure/chargeback rates.
IRDAI — protection economics
- Product filing norms; persistency disclosures; expense caps.
UIDAI & digital public goods
- eKYC cost/limit changes; API spec updates; offline KYC flows.
CBIC (Customs/GST)
- Rate/valuation clarifications; exemptions sunset/renewal windows.
Compliance actions — Owner · Doc · Due
| Regulator | Area | Who’s impacted | Owner | Doc | Due (target) | Eff. date | TTI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEBI | IPO/DRHP metrics | Issuers, Bankers | CFO / CoSec | Metrics glossary; cohort/CM2 sheets | 7 d | Filing + obs | M |
| RBI | Unsecured growth guardrails | Banks/NBFC | Risk/CRO | Portfolio stress note; limit grid | 5 d | Advisory T+X | S |
| IRDAI | Persistency/product mix | Insurers | Actuary | VNB bridge; channel incentives | 10 d | Filing cycle | M |
| UIDAI | eKYC spec | Banks/Fintech | CTO | API diff; fallback SOP | 3 d | Spec release | S |
| CBIC | GST/duty treatment | FMCG/Auto/Elex | Indirect Tax | BOM repricing; PO terms | 7 d | Notif date | S–M |
Risk matrix & hedges
| Event | Probability | Impact | Hedge / Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selective duty hike | Medium | High | Advance purchase; BOM re-quote; pass-through clauses |
| Unsecured growth curbs | Medium | Medium | Limit grids; segment caps; tighten underwriting |
| Float/lock-in tweaks | Low–Med | Medium | Model free float; adjust day-2 liquidity expectations |
| eKYC API change | Medium | Low–Med | Dual rail readiness; offline fallback SOP |